Assessment of mudflow risk in Uzbekistan using CMIP5 models

Precipitation induced mudflows are a major and longstanding threat in Uzbekistan, impacting on many properties livelihoods. In this paper, the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation producing conditions necessary to initiate piedmont areas Uzbekistan have been evaluated based historical scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways; RCP8.5) experiments along from 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Applying well-established weather type (CWT) technique, CMIP5 models reveal that mudflow generating flows will increase by up 5% end century. Considering simulations over 1979–2005 following projections RCP8.5 emission for target period 2071–2100, precipitation climatology has using bias correction techniques. By way, synthetic rainfall series were linked central proxy – types, such as cyclonic (C), westerly (W) south-westerly (SW) order diagnose potential changes occurrences given changed CWT characteristics running statistical-empirical algorithm antecedent daily model (ADRM) statistical logistic regression (LRM). Results important types (C, W SW) confirm activity selected region values associated with C expected warm season 2071–2100. The research focuses it remained poorly understood due limited climate research, particularly, mountain areas. This is face change, which likely pressure upon high may need investigate more frequent occurrences.